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中国高翻团队倾力之作

全文字数：1493字

阅读时间：15分钟

上期翻译答案

The interventions, he added, would “guard againstanticipated surges in imports from trade diverted away from the US and EU markets that will remain shielded for years to come” and which would have “risked jobs, investment, and our ability to transition to net zero”.

他补充道，这些干预措施”将防止可能因从美国和欧盟市场转移而来的贸易而出现的进口激增，因为这些贸易在未来数年仍将受到保护“，这些进口激增本可能“危及就业、投资和我们向（温室气体排放）净零转型的能力”。

1.guard against: to prevent something from happening

《本期内容》

双语阅读

In America and Europe, central banks turned only recently from encouraging economic recovery to battling stubborn inflation. In some emerging markets this shift began much earlier. Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point back in March 2021, 15 months before the Federal Reserve did the same. It foresaw that fiscal stimulus in the rich world raised the risk of inflation, which would upset financial markets and complicate life for emerging economies.

在美国和欧洲，央行直到最近才开始从推动经济复苏转向对抗顽固通胀。在一些新兴市场，这种转向开始得早得多。翻译划线句，长按文末小程序码打卡，答案下期公布~它预见到富裕国家的财政刺激会增加通胀的风险，这将扰乱金融市场，让新兴经济体的日子不好过。

The governor of Russia’s central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, warned over a year ago that the prospect of sustained inflation was likelier “than perceivedat first glance”. The pandemic had changed spending patterns, shepointed out. No one knew if the shift would last. But that very uncertainty was discouraging firms from investing to meet demand.

俄罗斯央行行长埃尔薇拉·纳比乌琳娜一年多前警告称，持续通胀的前景比“乍一眼看起来”可能性更大。她指出，疫情已经改变了消费模式。没有人知道这种转变是否会持续。但正是这种不确定性阻碍了企业为满足需求而投资。

These kinds of comments look prudent and prescient inhindsight. Indeed, with some notable exceptions, central banks in emerging markets have won increased respect in recent years. Their monetary-policy frameworks have improved, according to a new index (based on 225 criteria) developed by the IMF. Their frameworks are more coherent (their targets serve sensible objectives), transparent (they say what they are doing) and consistent (they do what they say).

现在看来，这类评论都很审慎且有先见之明。事实上，除一些明显的例外之外，新兴市场的央行近年来赢得了越来越多的尊重。根据国际货币基金组织制定的一项新指数（基于225项标准），它们的货币政策框架有所改善，变得更协调一致（制定合理目标）、更透明（公开自己在做什么）、更言行一致（说什么做什么）。

According to calculations by the World Bank, expectations of inflation in emerging markets in 2005-18 were about as well-anchored as they had been in rich countries in 1990-2004. Inflation also became less sensitive to falls in the exchange rate. Yourcolumnistremembers a sign outside a café in the Malaysian state of Penang in 2015. “Don’t worry!” it said. “As ourringgitfalls, coffee price remains the same.”

根据世界银行的计算，2005年至2018年新兴市场通胀预期锚定的程度与1990年至2004年富裕国家的情况大致相同。通胀对汇率下跌的敏感度也降低了。本专栏作者记得2015年去马来西亚槟城的时候，一家咖啡馆外竖着一块牌子，“不用担心！”上面写道， “虽然林吉特在贬值，但我们的咖啡不涨价。”

More people expected emerging markets to succeed in their fight against inflation, which in turn made success more likely. This enhanced credibility raisedenticingpossibilities. Perhaps their central banks, like those in the rich world, would not need to worry about each depreciation and every inflation spike. If so, perhaps they could pay lessslavishattention to two forces that hadbedevilledthem in the past: namely, the global price of capital, which is dictated by the Fed, and that of commodities.

更多的人希望新兴市场能在对抗通胀方面取得成功，这反过来也增加了他们成功的可能性。可信度的增加带来了诱人的可能性。也许这些国家的中央银行，就像那些发达国家的中央银行一样，不需要对每一次贬值和通货膨胀都感到担心。如果是这样的话，或许他们可以不那么盲目地关注过去困扰他们的两种力量：即由美联储决定的全球资本价格和大宗商品价格。

本文节选自：The Economist（经济学人）

发布时间：2022.07.22

作者：The Economist

原文标题：Are central banks in emerging markets now less of a slave to the Fed?

词汇积累

1.hindsight

英/ ˈhaɪndsaɪt /美/ ˈhaɪndsaɪt /

n.后见之明；枪的照门

2.columnist

英/ ˈkɒləmnɪst /美/ ˈkɑːləmnɪst /

n.专栏作家

3.ringgit